艾摩宏观:美国滞胀恐慌?

经济机器 经济机器
2021-11-18 12:05 322 0 0
艾摩宏观是全球顶级、独立的第三方宏观研究机构,提供全球范围股票、债券、汇率、大宗商品研究与投资建议。

作者:DavidAbramson

来源:经济机器(ID:EconomicMachine)

编者按:艾摩宏观是全球顶级、独立的第三方宏观研究机构,提供全球范围股票、债券、汇率、大宗商品研究与投资建议。团队首席平均研究经验超过30年,历经多轮经济牛熊周期,具有国际视野,文章专业性和可读性一流,值得细细学习品味。基于对我们公众号的专业性认可,艾摩宏观中国团队授权我们发布部分精品文章,以飨读者。


U.S. growth has peaked, leaving risk assets vulnerable to a fleeting stagflation scare. Eventually, the Fed will tone down the rate hike rhetoric, but they may want to taper before that.

美国经济增长已见顶,风险资产容易受到短暂滞胀恐慌的影响。最终,美联储将调低加息的论调,但他们可能希望在此之前逐步缩表。

Equity strategy needs to be selective as volatility increases and breadth narrows. Big Tech remains a mania candidate. Dividend growers and energy also are attractive. OPEC+ production increase removes threat of spike beyond $80/barrel, but downside in oil prices is limited.

 随着波动性的增加和市场参与广度的缩小,股票策略需要精挑细选。超级科技大盘股仍然是泡沫的候选人。高分红股票和能源股也很有吸引力。欧佩克+增产消除了油价突破80美元/桶的威胁,但油价下行空间有限。

Tactical opportunities: buy Covid-epicenter stocks and sell copper versus oil (COR).

战术性投资机会:买入疫情震中股票,卖出铜/石油(COR)。

01 Stagflation Scare? 滞胀恐慌?

Recent market movements are consistent with a shift in fears that there will be “too little”, rather than “too much”, economic growth (Chart 1). Long-dated Treasury prices are above their 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time in nine months. The S&P 500 is holding above its 50-day MA, but under the surface, cycle-sensitive stocks like transports and banks have been hammered. The Brent crude oil price briefly slipped below its 50-day MA for the first time in three months. Other commodities like iron ore and lumber have been much harder hit.

最近的市场走势与人们对经济增长“太少”而非“太多”的担忧转变相一致(图1)。长期国债价格9个月来首次高于200天移动平均线(MA)。标普500指数维持在50日均线上方,但在表象之下,运输和银行等周期敏感股票遭受重创。布伦特原油价格三个月来首次跌破50日均线。铁矿石和木材等其它大宗商品受到的冲击更大。


On the surface, renewed market volatility seems driven by spreading Covid delta variant cases, both around the world and in the U.S. Consensus growth estimates for the second half of this year had been steadily revised upward over the past few months, albeit from rates well below the 2021Q2 peak rate of 10% annualized (Chart 2). Another wave of infections raises the prospect of downward growth revisions caused by shutdowns and overburdened healthcare systems in states with low vaccination rates.

从表面上看,全球和美国市场上不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒似乎推高了市场的波动性。过去几个月,市场对今年下半年经济增长的普遍预期稳步上调,尽管远低于2021Q2年化10%的峰值增长率(图2)。在疫苗接种率较低的州,由于医疗系统的关闭和负担过重,另一波感染增加了增长下行的可能性。


However, capital markets likely are sniffing out a bigger picture theme under the surface. The sugar high as the pandemic recedes is giving way to a return to the pre-pandemic world of secular stagnation in which private savings chronically exceeds private investment. One corollary is that financial markets stumble anytime monetary and/or fiscal policymakers try to take their foot off the accelerator. The U.S. needs public dissaving and, even if the Biden administration succeeds in passing its infrastructure and spending bills, fiscal thrust will be significantly negative next year.

然而,资本市场可能正在从表像下嗅出一个更大的主题。随着疫情的消退,刺激政策正在让位于疫情前的世界,即长期停滞的状态,这种状态下私人储蓄长期超过投资。一个推论是,每当货币政策、财政政策制定者试图把脚从油门上移开时,金融市场就会跌跌撞撞。美国需要公共投资,即使拜登政府成功通过了基础设施和支出法案,明年的财政推力也将明显为负。

At this juncture, political pressure on the Fed to “fight inflation” exacerbates the risk of an equity correction and flatter yield curve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell again repeated on July 14 that the central bank would be prepared to raise rates should inflation move "materially and persistently beyond levels consistent" with its goal. A fleeting spurt of wage and price increases related to the easing of the pandemic could lead to a policy mistake as the Fed emphasizes tapering bond purchases just as inflation is peaking. At the same time, rents (23% of PCE and 42% of CPI) have lagged the surge in housing prices and could play catch up. These risks will be discussed at length in Friday’s Special Report.

在这个关键时刻,美联储迫于政治压力抗击通胀,加剧了股市回调和收益率曲线趋平的风险。鲍威尔7月14日再次重申,如果通胀率“实质性且持续地超出其目标水平”,美联储将准备加息。与疫情缓解相关的工资和价格上涨可能导致政策失误,因为美联储试图在通胀达到顶峰之际减少债券购买。与此同时,租金(占PCE的23%,占CPI的42%)已经滞后于房价的飙升,接下来可能会迎头赶上。这些风险会在本周五的特别报告中详细讨论。

None of this presents a lasting inflation risk. So far, the vast majority of “inflation” is consistent with a one-time post-Covid upward adjustment (Chart 3). San Francisco Fed decompositions of core PCE inflation show Covid-sensitive inflation is running more than 200 basis points ahead of Covidinsensitive components. Moreover, within the former, the contribution of demand-led drivers is much bigger than supply-constrained ones, albeit with an even larger contribution from ambiguous forces adding to the "fog". The central bank’s job would be much tougher if the price increases stemmed mainly from supply shortages, which would result in a stagflationary combination of higher prices and lower output. All of this fits our long-held thesis that this episode will look more like the 2010 scare than a sustained inflation rebound.

以上这些都不会带来持久的通胀风险。到目前为止,绝大多数的“通胀”都是疫后的一次性上调(图3)。旧金山联邦储备银行(PCE)的核心通胀指标显示,Covid敏感部分的通胀率超出不敏感部分200个基点。此外,尽管各种模糊因素加剧了“迷雾”,但敏感行业需求导向型因素的贡献远大于供给约束型因素。如果物价上涨主要源于供应短缺,那么央行的工作将更加艰巨,这将导致物价上涨和产出下降并出现滞胀。所有这些都符合我们一直以来的论点,即这一事件看起来更像2010年的恐慌,而不是持续的通胀反弹。


Under the surface, the U.S. savings-investment backdrop shares many similarities with the Eurozone (EZ) and Japan. Needless to say, the economic “return to normal” will reduce private savings and increase private investment in the U.S. and the world as a whole. However, a substantial excess private savings gap will persist in the U.S., as in the EZ and Japan (Chart 4). That explains why real yields are stuck well below zero even as the world looks better. It may await another economic slowdown, but U.S. Treasury yields likely will converge further towards the 0% “new normal” of the EZ and Japan, despite stronger U.S. nominal GDP growth (Chart 5).

表面上看,美国的储蓄/投资情况与欧元区和日本有许多相似之处。毋庸讳言,经济“回归常态”将减少私人储蓄,增加美国乃至整个世界的私人投资。然而,美国的私人储蓄缺口将持续存在,就像欧洲和日本(图4)。这就解释了为什么即使世界形势好转,实际收益率仍将远低于零。尽管美国名义GDP增长强劲,但在另一次经济放缓冲击下,美债收益率可能会进一步向欧洲和日本0% 的“新常态”靠拢(图5)。



Bottom line: Capital markets are warning policymakers not to take their foot off the accelerator, but the Fed may be paralyzed by a fleeting stagflation scare even as peaking growth expectations and looming fiscal drag imply little or no need for rate hikes. Bond prices may not bottom until the Fed backs off. Equity strategy needs to be selective (see next Theme).

总之:资本市场警告政策制定者不要松油门,尽管增长预期见顶和财政拖累隐现意味着几乎没有或根本没有必要加息,但美联储可能会因短暂的滞胀恐慌而进退失矩。在美联储退出之前,债券价格可能不会触底。股票策略则需要更加有选择性(见下一个主题)。

02 Generating Equity Alpha 创造股票阿尔法

The uncertain growth and policy backdrop warns that equity market volatility will rise and breadth will narrow. Traditional cyclicals such as materials, industrials, transports and financials could continue to underperform as growth prospects normalize, the yield curve flattens and the dollar stays firm (Chart 6). Covid-epicenter stocks are the exception because their consolidation leaves room for a tactical rebound even as the delta variant spreads. Elsewhere, to generate equity alpha look for some combination of safety, yield and growth.

不确定的增长和政策背景警告投资人,股市波动性将上升,参与度将收窄。随着增长前景正常化、收益率曲线趋平以及美元保持坚挺,原材料、工业、运输和金融等传统周期性行业可能继续表现不佳(图6)。疫情震中股票是个例外,因为它们的盘整为战术性反弹留下了空间,即使Delta变种扩散。在其它标的中,要寻求Alpha,就要寻求安全性、收益率和成长性的某种组合。


Among our favorites over the next 6-12 months:

在接下来的6-12个月里,我们最喜欢的股票是:

Big Tech: Chart 7 shows that the FAANGM stocks have risen in 2019, 2020 and again so far in 2021, an extremely rare development among S&P 500 groupings. It is encouraging that these stocks have been able to digest unfavorable yearon-year comps as the pandemic eases. Revenue and cash flow already were strong before 2020, but they accelerated at an unsustainable pace during the pandemic. The lack of a pullback will embolden investors to view expensively-valued FAANGMs as “safe” core portfolio holdings that offer cycle-insensitive high returns on equity. Finally, long-duration growth stocks, such as the FAANGMs, benefit when the risk-free interest rate is low. Chart 8 shows the strong positive correlation between bond prices and FAANGM stocks.

超级科技股:图7显示,FAANGM股票在2019、2020年以及2021年迄今为止连续上涨,这在标准普尔500指数成份股中是极为罕见的。好消息是,随着疫情的缓解,这些股票能够消化年同比增长压力。这些公司的收入和现金流在2020年之前已经十分强劲,但疫情期间又以不可持续的速度加速增长。这种不回头的走法强化了投资者将估值昂贵的FAANGM看做“安全”的核心资产,不受周期影响的为投资人提供高回报。最后,在无风险利率较低的情况下,FAANGMs无疑是受益者。图8显示了债券价格和FAANGM股票之间的强正相关关系。


Dividend Growers (DG): Last month’s Special Report made the case for overweighting companies with reliable track records of increasing dividends in an environment of low risk-free interest rates, sluggish growth and reduced pricing power.2 DG have two other factors working in their favor. First, their performance has been negatively correlated with FAANGMs, as the latter dominated investor attention and took a rising share of benchmark equity indexes (25% of S&P 500). However, both DG and FAANGMs offer safety and should benefit from low interest rates (Chart 9). The main difference is that Big Tech companies face “regulatory risk”, while DG do not. As a result, DG offers hedge value for portfolios that include Big Tech. Second, investors will draw a sharper distinction between safe and risky yield.Chart 10 shows that DG and high-yield corporate bond prices (HY) have been positively correlated for most of the past three decades. However, HY were propped up by policymakers during the pandemic. This makes the resulting zombie companies vulnerable as growth settles lower, encouraging a shift into safer yield instruments like DG.

股息贵族(DG):上个月的特别报告我们讲到,在低无风险利率、增长缓慢和定价能力下降的环境下,超配长期高分红且股息不断增长的公司。有两个因素利好DG。首先,它们的表现与FAANGMs呈负相关,因为后者完全吸引了投资者的注意力,使其在指数中所占份额不断上升(占标准普尔500指数的25%)。然而,DG和FAANGS都提供了安全性,且都从低利率中获益(图9)。主要区别在于,大型科技公司面临“监管风险”,而DG则没有。因此,DG为投资组合提供了对冲价值。其次,投资者将在安全收益率和风险收益率之间做出更清晰的区分。图表10显示,DG和高收益公司债券价格(HY)在过去30年的大部分时间里都是正相关的。然而,在疫情期间,政策制定者支持了HY。这使得僵尸公司在经济增长放缓时变得非常脆弱,从而将投资人推向DG等更安全的收益工具。


Reopening plays: Delta variant fears have hammered Covid-epicenter stocks such as airlines, hotels, restaurants and cruise lines that benefited from prospects for a steady economic reopening (Chart 11). However, pessimism towards these stocks may well be excessive as they test lows last seen before vaccinations had even started, suggesting they are approaching a tactical buy zone.

经济重开行业:对Delta变种的担忧重创了航空公司、酒店、餐馆和邮轮公司等疫情震中行业,这些股票受益于稳定的经济重开前景(图11)。然而,这种悲观情绪很可能过度了,因为它们的股价测试了疫苗接种开始前的低点,这表明其正在接近战术买入区。


Bottom line: Big Tech remains a potential mania candidate, with the biggest risk related to hardto-time regulatory actions. Overweight DG and consider tactical positions in Covid-epicenter plays. Homebuilders and energy (see next Theme) also remain attractive. Traditional cyclicals and moneylosing technology companies should be treated with caution.

总之:超级科技股仍然是一个潜在的泡沫候选人,最大的风险与难以预测的监管行动有关。超配DG并关注疫情震中行业的战术买入点。房地产和能源(见下一个主题)行业仍然具有吸引力。应谨慎对待传统周期股和亏损的科技公司。

03

Overweight Energy Stocks, Sell COR 超配能源股,抛售铜/油

Oil markets buckled on news of the OPEC+ deal to boost production.3 But the deal is much more likely to remove the threat of a spike above $80/barrel than cause a plunge.

油价因石油输出国组织增产协议的消息而下跌。3但该协议更有可能消除油价飙升至每桶80美元以上的威胁,而不是导致油价暴跌。

First, U.S. gasoline demand, proxied by net finished production, has hit a new high even though electric vehicles (EV) are gaining new car market share (Chart 12). Second, U.S. shale production and rig counts had barely recovered before the OPEC+ deal, even as oil prices hit a 3-year high, in contrast with 2016-18 (Chart 13). Third, the world economic recovery remains on track, judging from purchasing managers surveys, as Covid deaths and hospitalizations rise far less than cases. Finally, long-dated crude futures stayed within their tight $50-55 range after the deal was announced, suggesting that long-term prospects for crude prices are steady (Chart 14).

首先,尽管电动汽车(EV)正在抢占新车市场份额,但美国汽油需求已创下新高(图12)。其次,在欧佩克+协议达成之前,尽管油价与2016至2018年相比创下了3年来的新高,但美国页岩油产量和钻井平台数量几乎没有增加(图13)。第三,从采购经理人调查来看,世界经济复苏仍在有序推进,因为病毒死亡和住院的人数增长远远低于之前。最后,在协议宣布后,长期原油期货价格保持在50-55美元的窄幅区间,这表明原油价格的长期前景是稳定的(图14)



In this environment, OPEC+ will find it much easier to stabilize oil markets than in 2014 when surging U.S. shale production took market share from the cartel (Chart 15). Back then, the Saudis temporarily disbanded the cartel, sending oil prices down by more than $70/barrel from the previous tight multiyear range above $100. Granted, OPEC and Russia’s combined share of world production is lower than before the pandemic, but so is the U.S. share, and oil prices are at the high end of the $30-80/barrel range that has prevailed since the Saudis restarted OPEC in 2016.

在这种环境下,石油输出国组织发现,稳定石油市场要比2014年容易得多,当时美国页岩产量激增,从欧佩克手中夺走了大量市场份额(图15)。沙特被迫暂时解散了联盟,使油价从过去100美元以上区间下跌到了70多美元/桶。诚然,石油输出国组织和俄罗斯在世界石油产量中所占份额之和低于疫情前,但美国的份额也低于疫情前,而油价处于自2016年沙特重启石油输出国组织以来30-80美元/桶价格区间的高端。


Conventional energy stocks were just finding their footing after 3 consecutive terrible years when a rising dollar and the OPEC+ deal again hammered the sector. We still recommend a cyclical overweight in oil and gas stocks, despite poor long-term prospects as green energy sources gain the upper hand (Chart 16). The dynamics of this transition depend on U.S. and European political developments, as well as the price of oil. For now, conventional energy is cheap and clean energy is expensive (Table 1). The former will benefit even if, as we expect, oil prices have limited upside from current levels.

传统能源股在经历了连续三年的糟糕走势后刚刚站稳脚跟,美元不断升值和石油输出国组织协议就再次重创该行业。尽管绿色能源占上风,长期前景不佳,但我们仍然建议周期性增持石油和天然气股(图16)。这种转变的逻辑取决于美国和欧洲的政治发展以及石油价格。目前,常规能源价格低廉,清洁能源则价格昂贵(表1)。毫无疑问会利好常规能源,即使如我们预期的那样,油价较目前水平上涨有限。


One corollary is that copper prices are due for a major pullback vis-à-vis oil. The long-term bull story for copper demand makes sense as an input to the alternative energy theme. Nevertheless, copper supply is ramping up at a time when Chinese growth is moderating. Chart 17 shows that copper production has risen rapidly in comparison with oil production, yet the copper/oil ratio (COR) is at the high end of its multi-decade range.

另一个结论是相对于石油,铜价将大幅回落。作为替代能源主题的刚需资源,铜的长期牛市是可以理解的。尽管如此,在中国经济增长放缓之际,铜供应却在不断增加。图17显示,与石油产量相比,铜产量增长迅速,但铜/石油比率(COR)处于其数十年内的高点。


Bottom line: Stick with strategy of overweighting conventional energy in the next 12-18 months, while building a core holding in green energy plays over a longer-term time horizon. The COR is vulnerable to a major correction in the next 3 to 6 months.

总而言之:保持在未来12-18个月内对常规能源进行超配的策略,同时在更长期的时间范围内建立绿色能源的核心头寸。铜油比很脆弱,极有可能在未来3到6个月内出现重大修正。

注:文章为作者独立观点,不代表资产界立场。

本文由“经济机器”投稿资产界,并经资产界编辑发布。版权归原作者所有,未经授权,请勿转载,谢谢!

原标题: 艾摩宏观:美国滞胀恐慌?

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